Indiana vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks – January 19
The Indiana Hoosiers (11-6) will face the Illinois Fighting Illini (13-5) in Champaign on Thursday. Indiana snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over then-ranked Wisconsin 63-45. Prior to that, they hadn’t had a quality win since a win over North Carolina in late November.
However, Illinois began to find its stride, winning four straight conference games over Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State and Minnesota.
Indiana Hoosiers vs Illinois Fighting Illini TeamSpreadTotalMoney Line Betting OddsIndiana Hoosiers+6.5o144.5+220Illinois Fighting Illini-6.5u144.5-275
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Match Details
Fixture: Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Date and time: Thursday, January 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Center
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we’ll highlight essential ShotQuality data for this match, including adjusted offensive and defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
So, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Indiana Hoosiers have an AdjOFF SQ of 1.09 this season, good for 60th place in the country. Illinois has the 7th best AdjDEF SQ at 0.90. hurts average in all key stats, but shot selection where they are in the 89th percentile. They are also 4th in rim and three SQ PPP. Conversely, the Fighting Illini are 12th or better in the nation in defensive and rim shot selection and three SQ PPPs.
The Hoosiers possess cutaway high frequency numbers, ending at the rim, P&R ball screen, post-up and transition shot types. They are in the top 70th in all of those shot types except P&R, with a 0.97 SQ PPP (173rd in the country), and post-up, with a 0.90 SQ PPP (163rd). Conversely, the Fighting Illini are top 75 in all of these categories, excelling in P&R and transition, placing in the top 10.
The Fighting Illini have an AdjOFF SQ of 1.09, the 62nd highest rating in the nation. IU posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, ranking 57th in the nation. The Fighting Illini are in the top 70 in spacing, shot selection and rim metrics and three rates. The Hoosiers are in the top 80 in defensive shot selection and rim and three-rate metrics, but in the 74th percentile in defensive spacing.
Illinois is in the top half of the country in terms of frequency for the following types of shots: catching and three-pointers, cutting, edge finishing, isolation, three-pointers off the dribble, offscreen, and transition. IU is near-elite in defense of all of these shot types, highlighted by a 1.19 SQ PPP in transition, good for the 22nd best rating in the nation. However, they struggle with screens, ranking 241st in the nation.
Prediction Indiana vs. Illinois
IU struggled to find his groove, despite housing one of the nation’s best players in Trayce Jackson-Davis.
The Hoosiers have been without the services of Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson, and neither look close to returning to the field, but guard Trey Galloway is back in the starting lineup as the team tries to return to full health .
Although they won’t be with all of their best players on Thursday, they’re getting too many points to avoid grabbing them ATS.
Prediction: Indiana +6.5 (-110)
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