Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/01

Locks

NBA (0.5 units) Golden State Warriors -3 @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-110; odds via Caesars): 7:00 p.m. CT on Bally Sports North

Part of me hopes I’m wrong here, and I hate to face Wolves after their recent strong spell. But ultimately, it looks like a bad game for the Minnesota build, and that’s why the Warriors crushed the Wolves in their only other meeting this season. Golden State just seems to have too much ability to play basketball out of position to take advantage of the fact that Rudy Gobert is a statue.

And if the Warriors are on target from deep, they’ll fill it in at Target Center tonight. Minnesota is the 3rd most generous team to allow three-point shooting in home games, and the Warriors have been on fire in their last games. Wolves’ streak of solid defenses will suffer their toughest test here, and sadly I don’t think they are up to the challenge, so I’ll tell the visitors that tonight.

Bonus bet (0.5 units): Warriors/Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 61 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Golden State blasted Wolves out of the gates straight away in the first meeting and never looked back, hanging 47 in the first quarter. If concerns about the game are confirmed, we should see another first quarter with high scores. The Warriors are the best performing team in the first quarter in the league, with Wolves just behind in fifth place. But Golden State also allows 31.2 first quarter points in road games, 4th most in the league. With Wolves typically allowing big first quarters at home, this should be another quick start for both offenses.

NCAA basketball (0.5 unit) Tennessee/Florida under 132 (-110; odds via Caesars): 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPN2

Tennessee is great fun to watch if you’re a fan of defense, but if you want offense, this probably isn’t the game for you. The Volunteers lead the nation in points allowed, defensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, opposing shot percentage, and the list goes on and on. This defense travels well too, experiencing very little drop in games on the road, and will meet another defensively oriented team here.

Florida relies heavily on its 25th-ranked defense as the Gators have struggled to shoot all season. They played 8 games against teams that I consider to be strong defensive teams, averaging 55.8 points per game. Tennessee will obviously be the best defense they’ve ever seen, and I expect more offensive struggles. But with their own excellent defense and the Vols tending to score droughts on the road, defense should be the theme here and create an easy underside.

degenerate

No degenerate today.

Tiny Nick is 1060-902 ATS (+91.2 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Each day it will offer its Locks and Degenerate choices. The locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun but riskier choices.