NBA Betting Trends: Best, Worst ATS Teams Thru 50 Games

NBA Betting Trends: Best, Worst ATS Teams Thru 50 Games

Posted on: February 1, 2023, 12:18 p.m.

Last update on: February 1, 2023, 01:04h.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team to bet in the NBA over the first 50 games of the regular season, with a record of 31-18-1 against the spread (ATS). The Dallas Mavericks are the worst team to bet on, or a team you should consider fading to, with a 17-33-2 ATS record.

Shooting guard Josh Giddey claps the hands of point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during team introductions against the Los Angeles Clippers at Arena. (Image: Getty)

The NBA teams with the best record don’t always cover the point spread because the public tends to overestimate their abilities. The Boston Celtics (36-15) and Denver Nuggets (35-16) hold first place in their respective conferences, but both teams are barely even to cover this season. The Celtics are 26-25 ATS and the Nuggets are 26-24-1 ATS.

Top Teams ATS Record ATS Record S/U Oklahoma City Thunder 31-18-1 24-26 Orlando Magic 29-21-1 20-31 Sacramento Kings 27-21-1 28-21 Philadelphia 76ers 27-21-1 32-17 Milwaukee Bucks 27-21-3 34-17 Utah Jazz 29-23-0 26-26 Worst team record ATS Record ATS S/U Record Dallas Mavericks 17-33-2 27-25 Houston Rockets 19-29-2 12-38 Miami Heat 20-29-3 29-23 Atlanta Hawks 22-28-1 25-26

The public often overlooks mediocre teams. The Thunder fit that description this season. They’re on the Western Conference playoff bubble with a 24-26 (S/U) record, but they’ve exceeded market expectations with a 31-18-1 ATS record.

Oklahoma City Thunder (24-26 S/U, 31-18-1 ATS)

The heavyweight Western Conference has a field of 10 teams separated by just four games. The Thunder are currently in 11th place and on the playoff bubble. They are just one game away from qualifying for the Western Conference Play-In Tournament. At the same time, the Thunder are only three games behind the fourth-placed Los Angeles Clippers.

The Thunder have finally found their footing and are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games. They have two games to come against the Houston Rockets, who are the NBA’s worst team, and have the league’s second-worst betting record.

The young Thunder is led by exciting guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 30.9 points per game and is ranked fifth overall. He is one of the betting favorites to win the Returning Player of the Year award.

Orlando Magic (20-31 S/U, 29-21-1 ATS)

The Orlando Magic is another young and talented team with a promising future. But it’s one of the three worst teams in the Eastern Conference with just 20 wins. They have the second-best ATS record in the NBA at 29-21-1. The home crowd haven’t quite caught up with them as they quietly played their best ball of the season over the past six weeks.

The Magic got off to a rocky start to the first quarter of the season going 5-20. After the Magic snapped an ugly nine-game losing streak in early December, they found their groove and went 15-11 in their previous 16 games. In their last 11 games, the Magic are 8-3 ATS since early January.

Paolo Banchero, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, is a strong betting favorite to win Rookie of the Year. Banchero leads the Magic in scoring with an average of 20.7 points per game. He’s gotten better every week and looks more like a seasoned veteran than someone who was in high school two years earlier.

Sacramento Kings (28-21 S/U, 27-21-1 ATS)

The Kings are one of the surprise teams in the NBA this season. After 16 straight losing seasons, the Kings are on course to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since the 2005-06 season. If the regular season ended today, the Kings would take the third seed in the Western Conference with a 28-21 record.

The Kings have the third-best betting record in the NBA this season with a 27-21-1 ATS clip. In their last 11 games, the Kings are 8-2-1 ATS.

The Kings have a favorable schedule through the first two weeks of February. Four of their next five games are against losing teams, with Game 5 against the New Orleans Pelicans (26-26). After that easy stretch, they play back-to-back games against the Dallas Mavericks, who are the NBA’s worst betting team this season.

Philadelphia 76ers (32-17 S/U, 27-21-1 ATS)

The 76ers took second place in the Eastern Conference for a few games before being passed by the Milwaukee Bucks. The surging 76ers now sit in third place, but trail the first-place Celtics by just three games.

The 76ers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, going 12-3 overall in their last 15 games. Over their last 25 games, the 76ers have gone 15-9-1 ATS.

They finally have a healthy backcourt after James Harden and Tyrese Maxey missed time with injuries in the first half of the season. Head coach Doc Rivers inserted De’Anthony Melton into the starting lineup at the shooting position and moved James Harden to point guard when Maxey was absent. This change in rotation was a success, as Maxey assumed his role off the bench as the sixth man and leader of the second unit.

Dallas Mavericks (27-25 S/U, 17-33-2 ATS)

If you’re looking to wipe out teams that can’t cover the point spread, keep an eye out for two Texas teams. The Mavs have one of the best players in the world in Luka Dončić, but he was a one-man show in the Big D. Dončić is nursing a sprained ankle and the Mavs are 0-6 when he is injured.

The Mavs are the perfect example of a team that failed to meet preseason expectations, and the public overlooks their true ability. With a 17-33-2 ATS record, the Mavs are the NBA’s worst betting team this season. They may have won 27 games, but they’ve failed to break the point spread 35 times this season.

The Mavs are just 27-25 this season and currently sit sixth in the Western Conference standings. Teams on the playoff bubble only trail the Mavs by two games. The Mavs qualified for the Western Conference Finals last postseason as one of the final four teams in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. However, losing guard Jalen Brunson in free agency had a bigger impact than everyone had expected.

Houston Rockets (12-38 S/U, 19-29-2 ATS)

With only 12 wins, the Rockets are the worst team in the NBA. A 13-game losing streak in early January plunged the Rockets into a deeper hole. They are now in a good position to finish among the three worst teams this season, which would give them the best chance of hitting the NBA Draft 2023 lottery jackpot with the No. 1 pick. Victor Wembanyama, a 7-foot-3 French phenom inches, is the best big man prospect in a generation. Several teams are hoping to land Wembanyama with the first pick in the next draft.

The Rockets have the second-worst betting record in the NBA this season with a 19-29-2 ATS clip. They failed to cover more than 60% of their games. If you wiped out the Rockets and bet against them every game, this system would have been a profitable business in the first 50 games of this season.

The Rockets are the NBA’s worst road team with a 5-21 road record. Only the Detroit Pistons (6-19) have a worse home record than the Rockets (7-17)

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