Pitt-North Carolina prediction, pick, how to watch
The Pittsburgh Panthers (15-7) visit the North Carolina Tar Heels (15-6) on Wednesday night. Action Tips at 7:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our college basketball odds series with a prediction, pick and how to watch Pitt-North Carolina.
Pitt has won four of his last five games and is 8-3 and third in the ACC. The Panthers have covered 71% of their games while 59% have exceeded the expected point total. North Carolina has won four straight to propel them to 7-3 and fourth in the ACC. The Tar Heels covered 37% of their games while 52% sank. This will be the second meeting of the season between the conference opponents. Pitt won and covered earlier this season, just as they have in four of the last five meetings dating back to 2020.
Here are the Pitt-North Carolina college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College basketball odds: Pitt-North Carolina odds
Pit: +8.5 (-110)
North Carolina: -8.5 (-110)
Over: 146.5 (-114)
Minus: 146.5 (-106)
How to watch Pitt vs. North Carolina
Television: ACC Network
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
Why Pitt might cover the spread
Pitt was one of the ACC’s surprise teams as they sit in third place despite finishing 14th in the preseason poll. The Panthers rebounded from a disappointing non-conference roster that saw them drop games at West Virginia, Michigan and VCU. However, they picked up a 29-point road win at Northwestern. In conference, Pitt has already beaten North Carolina, No. 6 Virginia and No. 23 Miami. As a result, Pitt is in a solid spot in the forward metrics. The Panthers rank No. 68 in the KenPom and No. 61 in the NET. Although they went 7-6 in the Quad 1 and Quad 2 matchups, they have a crippling loss in Quad 4. Pitt currently projects as a bottom four team and a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Pitt is a team built on his strong offense. The Panthers rank sixth in the ACC with an average of 74.3 PPG. They’re a deadly three-point shooting team that’s tied for second in the conference in threes per game (9.1 15 hrs/game). Pitt is a solid rebounding team that is especially strong on the defensive glass. The Panthers rank 24th in the nation in defensive rebounding (25.7 DRPG).
Offensively, Pitt relies on junior forward Blake Hinson and senior guard Jamarius Burton. Hinson leads the team with 16.4 PPG, while Burton is right behind him with 16.1 PPG. Additionally, Burton’s 4.8 APG ranks fourth in the ACC. Burton had one of the best games of their career in their previous win over North Carolina. The 6’4″ guard scored 31 points on an incredible 14/17 shooting performance. Coming off a 19 point, 10 rebound and 7 assist outing against Miami, look for Burton to fill in the box score tonight.
The X factor for Pitt tonight is big man Federiko Federiko. The 6’11 sophomore is a formidable shot blocker who ranks third in the ACC with 1.8 blocks per game. Paired with the UNC frontline, Federiko could rock tonight’s broadcast with a big night.
Why North Carolina might be covering up the spread
North Carolina had sky-high expectations after second place last year, but it had a lackluster non-conference performance. The Tar Heels lost four straight games in late November, despite leading No. 4 Alabama to four overtime periods. However, they have since bounced back and scored notable victories over Ohio State and Michigan. They rank favorably in advanced metrics, ranking at #32 in KenPom and #37 in NET. The Tar Heels are currently projecting themselves as the No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina is one of the top offensive teams in the nation, ranking 23rd nationally in points (79.2 PPG). The Tar Heels do most of their damage in the paint and do an incredible job of reaching the free throw line. With 18.4 free throws per game, North Carolina averages the third most free throws per game.
The high-powered UNC offense is led by big man Armando Bacot and his pair of veteran guards. Bacot ranks third in the ACC in points (17.9 PPG) while leading the conference in rebounds (11.4 RPG). He dropped 22 points and 13 rebounds in their previous loss to Pitt and will likely be the main focus again.
As for their guards, RJ Davis (16.4 PPG) and Caleb Love (16.2 PPG) are capable scorers who can get hot at any time. Love struggled in their last meeting with Pitt, but has scored 15+ goals in three straight games and will be looking to bounce back tonight.
Pitt-Caroline final prediction and selection
Pitt has owned UNC for the past few seasons. Getting 8.5 points seems like a given after their previous win, and so I’m rolling with the Panthers tonight.
Pitt-North Carolina final prediction and pick: Pitt -8.5 (-110)