2023 NHL MVP odds: Picks, predictions, favorites at All-Star Break
This is Connor McDavid’s world and we all live in it. Or is that the case when it comes to the Hart Trophy in the 2022-23 NHL season? It’s hard to say despite the odds of being super lopsided. We’re at the All-Star break and it doesn’t look like anyone is going to catch up to McDavid in the race. Let’s take a look at this and dig a little deeper.
2023 NHL MVP Odds
As you can see below, McDavid is -700 and a MASSIVE favorite to win MVP this season. We get it, McDavid has 92 points in 50 games and is on course to eclipse 150 points, something that hasn’t been done in three decades. McDavid has 16 points more than the skater behind him in the League, teammate Leon Draisaitl. You could say the only reason Draisaitl is so high is because of McDavid. So really, McDavid is way ahead of anyone in terms of points.
Outside of the points is where things get interesting. In terms of Game Score Added Value (GSVA), McDavid is ahead 4.1-3.6 for New Jersey Devils C Jack Hughes, who made a strong push despite the odds remaining fairly wide. Chances are no one will catch McDavid in the MVP race, but we’ll give it a go for now.
Hughes is top 10 in points at 64 (33 goals, 31 assists) and top 6 in goals at the break. The Devils are behind the Hurricanes in the standings but have a shot at winning the Metro Division. If Hughes were to climb into the top 5 in points and finish close to McDavid in goal while the Devils win the Metro, is that enough to win over Hart? In other seasons in an alternate universe where McDavid doesn’t exist, of course. In 2022-23, still probably not enough.
That’s not even about David Pastrnak and Nikita Kucherov, who are behind McDavid and Draisaitl in points while playing in Cup contending sides. Nor does it seem very useful to address the case of Jason Robertson or Mikko Rantanen. The only scenario in which to place bets on the Hart Trophy is if we see a drop on McDavid. And it looks like Hughes is his biggest competition despite what the odds say.