NBA Odds: Warriors vs. Nuggets prediction, pick, how to watch
The Golden State Warriors (26-25) visit the Denver Nuggets (35-16) Thursday night. Action Tips at 9:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Nuggets prediction, pick and how to watch.
Golden State has won three of its last four games and sits seventh in the Western Conference. The Warriors have covered 48% of their games while 59% have exceeded the expected point total. Denver has lost two of its last three but remains in first place in the West. The Nuggets covered 52% of their games while 53% sank. This will be the second of three meetings between the conference foes. Denver won Game 1, 128-123 at Golden State.
Here are the NBA Warriors-Nuggets odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Warriors-Nuggets Odds
Golden State Warriors: +12 (-110)
Denver Nuggets: -12 (-110)
Over: 231.5 (-110)
Minus: 231.5 (-110)
How to watch Warriors vs. Nuggets
TV: NBCS Bay Area, Elevation
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET / 6:00 p.m. PT
*Watch LIVE NBA games with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
Why Warriors Might Cover the Spread
Golden State is back in the thick of it as it is just 1.5 games behind fourth place in the West. That being said, the Warriors are expected to rest both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson tonight – hence the huge point spread. However, the Warriors have shown their ability to cover and even win outright when their stars are seated as they notably beat the Cavaliers in Cleveland with all five starters seated.
If Golden State is going to cover tonight with a short roster, expect Jordan Poole to have a monster game. Poole is usually the most consistent warrior in terms of games played as Steve Kerr trots him apart from the rest of the team. Poole hasn’t quite taken the leap many expected of him after a stellar postseason, but he’s still averaging a career-high 20.8 PPG. The combo guard is also an underrated passer, amassing 4.4 APG. A streaky shooter, Poole absolutely has the potential to get hot and Golden State will cover. Although he’s been quiet in recent games, expect him to go for 20+ shots if Curry and Thompson sit down.
Depending on who sits for Golden State, forward Jonathan Kuminga could see his minutes go up tonight. Last year’s seventh pick doesn’t get consistent playing time, but could be a major X-factor if he gets an extended run. For his career, Kuminga averages 16.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG when playing at least 25 minutes.
Along with Kuminga, big man Kevin Looney should see his minutes climb depending on who sits tonight. Either way, Looney plays a pivotal role for the Warriors as a de facto big man. Despite only playing 23 minutes per game, Looney averages 8.6 rpg. He’s coming off a stellar game against Wolves where he scored 10 points, had nine rebounds, blocked two shots and grabbed two steals.
Why nuggets could cover the spread
Denver has established itself as the best team in the Western Conference as they are three games ahead of the next closest team. The Nuggets feature an elite offense that ranks sixth with 116.6 PPG. They are one of the best passing teams in the league, ranking second with 28.6 APG. Denver does it at all levels on the floor as it leads the league in shooting percentage (51%) and three-point percentage (40%). The Nuggets should be in for another big night offensively as they take on Golden State’s 26th-ranked defense.
Denver’s chances of covering tonight start first and foremost with big man Nikola Jokic. Jokic is the heart and soul of this Denver team as he leads them in points (25.1 PPG), rebounds (11.1 RPG), and assists (10 APG). The reigning two-time MVP also ranks in the top 10 with a 63% field goal percentage. Jokic has been amazing all season, but he’s been particularly impressive lately. In matches on January 12, Jokic amassed eight triple-doubles, averaging 23 PPG, 11.6 RPG, and 11.3 APG during that span. On FanDuel, he has +100 chances to register a triple-double which speaks only of his dominance.
The X-factor for Denver tonight has to be sniper Michael Porter Jr. The long forward ranks fourth on the team in scoring, but could play an expanded role with questionable Aaron Gordon. Porter is a prolific shooter who averages 16.2 PPG and nearly three three-point shots per game while shooting them at a 41% clip. He’s made multiple threes in nine of his last 10 games and will likely make 10 in his last 11 given Golden State’s 22nd three-point defense.
Final Warriors-Nuggets Prediction and Pick
If Golden State does indeed rest Curry and Thompson, I expect Denver to run away with this one.
Final Warriors-Nuggets Prediction and Pick: Denver Nuggets -12 (-110)